Risk Prioritization in Water and Wastewater Projects Using a Decision Model Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process

Document Type : Regular Paper

Authors

1 Department of Civil Engineering, Neyshabur Branch, Islamic Azad University, Neyshabur, Iran

2 New Materials Technology and Processing Research Center, Department of Civil Engineering, Neyshabur Branch, Islamic Azad University, Neyshabur, Iran

3 Department of Industrial Engineering, Shirvan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shirvan, Iran

Abstract

The risk management standard published by the Project Management Institute (PMI), entitled Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK), was utilized in the present study as the primary method for evaluation of risk management. The general purpose of this article is to prioritize risk in water and wastewater projects through the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The statistical population considered here covers all the factors involved in water and sewage projects. Sample size determination was done based on the Morgan table, which resulted in selecting 59 high-expertise experts. The Delphi method, a process used to arrive at a group opinion or decision by surveying a panel of experts, was used for risk identification. After entering the raw data into an Expert Choice program, based on the AHP decision model, data analysis was completed. The obtained results indicate that budget deficit is the most critical risk factor of the project, preceding by inflation and international sanctions. Furthermore, risk factors related to expanding the project relationship with other areas, the area's religious location, and the area's environmental hazards, and the project site are the least important ranking items.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

[1] Wang, S., Dulaimi, M. & Aguria, Y. Risk management framework for construction projects in developing countries. Construction Management and Economics, 22.3 (2004) 237-252.
[2] Baloi, P. & Price, A. Modelling global risk factors affecting construction cost performance. International Journal of Project Management, 21.4 (2003) 261–269.
[3] Hillson, D. Dealing with business uncertainty. 2011. Unloaded from: http://www.risk-doctor.com/briefings.
[4] Olsson, R. In search of opportunity management: Is the risk management process enough? International Journal of Project Management, 25.8 (2007)745-752.
[5] Anderson, S. Risk Identification and Assessment. PMI Virtual Library.2009.
[6] Perera, J. & Holsomback, J. An integrated risk management tool and process, Aerospace Conference, 2005 IEEE , 2005, pp.129-136, 5-12 March.
[7] Tohidi, H. The Role of Risk Management in IT systems of organizations. Procedia - Computer Science Journal, 3 (2011) 881-887.
[8] Lee, E., Park, Y. & Shin, J. Large engineering project risk management using a Bayesian belief network, Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal, 36.3(2009) 5880-5887.
[9] Delaram, F, & Ghasemzadeh-Mousavinejad, S.H. Risk management and safety in construction projects. The 2nd National Conference on Applied Studies in Civil Engineering, Architecture and Urban Management, Tehran, University of Applied Science and Technology. 2014.
[10] Tavakkolan, M., & Sohrabi, R. Assessment of the causes of civil project delays and problems by considering the effect of project management on the execution time- and cost-induced risks. International Congress on Novel Stability Developments in Architecture, Urban Planning, Civil and Construction Engineering, Istanbul, Turkey, YEM Center for Industry and Construction, Anabaft Shahr Consortium, Istanbul Technical University (ITU). 2016.
[11] Ghanbari, V., & Shakib, S. ISM structuring of quality management problems. Standard and Quality Management, 7 (2017) 1-15.
[12] Sokhakian, M.A., & Moini, M. Assessing and ranking water and sewage project risks using a novel FMEA approach. 1st National Conference on Accounting and Management, Shiraz, Kharazmi International Educational and Research Institute. 2013.
[13] Mohammadi, A., & Jafari, S. M. Risk Management in Construction Of Marine Projects (According To The PMBOK Standard).‏ 2008.
[14] Liu, P., Li, Q., Bian, J., Song, L., & Xiahou, X. Using interpretative structural modeling to identify critical success factors for safety management in subway construction: A china study. International journal of environmental research and public health, 15.7 (2018) 1359.‏
[15] Wu, W. S., Yang, C. F., Chang, J. C., Château, P. A., & Chang, Y. C. Risk assessment by integrating interpretive structural modeling and Bayesian network, case of offshore pipeline project. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 142 (2015) 515-524.‏
[16] Li, H. R., Li, Q. M., & Lu, Y. (2017). Statistical analysis on regularity of subway construction accidents from 2002 to 2016 in China. Urban Rapid Rail Transit, 30(1), 12-19.
[17] Mohammadi, A., Mosleh Shirazi, A., Ahmadi, M., Shojaei, P. Designing hierarchical model for risk mitigation in project supply chain based on meta-synthesis (Case Study: Fars Gas Company). Industrial Management Journal, 2014; 6(3): 591-614. doi: 10.22059/imj.2014.50690
[18] Atashsooz, A., Feizi, K., Kazazi, A., Olfat, L. A Model for Relationship of Supply Chain Risks in Iran’s Petrochemical Industry. Industrial Management Journal, 2015; 7(3): 405-424. doi: 10.22059/imj.2015.57257.
[19] Nikabadishafie, M., Naderi, R., & Tajik, H. Extra-organizational factors affecting knowledge management in the supply chain: a hybrid approach of factor analysis and structural-interpretive modeling. Industrial Management Perspective. 2016.
[20] Yuan, W.U. and Yang, L.E.I. Risk Analysis of BT Construction Project Based on ISM Model [J]. Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University (Social Sciences Edition), 5 (2010).
[21] Bi, Y., Bo, Y. and Qian, S. Research on risk generating mechanisms of overseas oil and gas development projects based on an interpretative structural model. Journal of Harbin engineering university, 31.9 (2010) 1259-1264.
[22] Naderpour, H., Kheyroddin, A. and Mortazavi, S. Risk Assessment in Bridge Construction Projects in Iran Using Monte Carlo Simulation Technique. Practice Periodical on Structural Design and Construction. 2019; 24(4): p.04019026.
https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)SC.1943-5576.0000450
[23] Mortazavi, S., Kheyroddin, A. and Naderpour, H. Risk Evaluation and Prioritization in Bridge Construction Projects Using System Dynamics Approach. Practice Periodical on Structural Design and Construction. 2020; 25(3), p.04020015.
https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)SC.1943-5576.0000493.
[24] Monirabbasi, A., RamezaniKhansari, A., Majidi, L. Simulation of Delay Factors in Sewage Projects with the Dynamic System Approach. Industrial Engineering and Strategic Management, 2021; 1(1): 15-30. doi: 10.22115/iesm.2020.232300.1006
[25] Gao, X.K. and Yang, J.Y. Based on the model of ISM in risk analysis for the BT reclaimed water project. In Advanced Materials Research. 601(2013) 449-453.

Files

Cited by

History

  • Receive Date: 06 August 2020
  • Revise Date: 15 January 2021
  • Accept Date: 18 January 2021

Share

How to cite

Statistics