Deterministic and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis of Kunduz Airport (Afghanistan)

Document Type : Regular Paper

Authors

1 Ph.D. Student, Department of Structural Engineering, Afghan International Islamic University, Kabul, Afghanistan

2 Ph.D., Department of Structural Engineering, Afghan International Islamic University, Kabul, Afghanistan

3 Head of the Civil Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Badakhshan University, Kabul, Afghanistan

4 Lecturer, Department of Civil Engineering, Kateb University, Kabul, Afghanistan

Abstract

This study presents the first site-specific seismic hazard assessment of Kunduz Airport, a critical infrastructure located in the seismically active Alpine–Himalayan belt of northeastern Afghanistan. Both deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) are employed to estimate peak ground acceleration (PGA), incorporating historical and instrumental seismicity data, regional tectonic frameworks, and local soil conditions (Vs30 = 250–300 m/s). The analysis utilizes regionally calibrated ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) from the NGA-West2 suite within a logic-tree framework to account for epistemic uncertainties. The PSHA results yield a median PGA of 0.411g for a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (return period ~2475 years), while the DSHA indicates a maximum PGA of 0.41g, primarily governed by the Chaman fault. The Central Badakhshan and Takhar faults are also identified as major seismic sources contributing to site hazard. A comparative evaluation of international seismic design codes (Iranian Standard 2800, ASCE 7-16, Eurocode 8) reveals notable discrepancies in spectral acceleration and base shear values, emphasizing the necessity of local code calibration for performance-based design (PBD) of essential facilities in Afghanistan. Unlike previous regional studies such as Bakhshi et al. (2025), this research incorporates updated GMPE logic trees, nonlinear soil classification, and direct code-spectrum comparisons, offering a robust and localized hazard framework. The results contribute to seismic code development and risk mitigation planning for vital transportation infrastructure in Afghanistan.

Graphical Abstract

Deterministic and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis of Kunduz Airport (Afghanistan)

Highlights

  • PSHA shows higher seismic hazard than DSHA for Kunduz Airport.
  • Dual-method analysis assesses crucial infrastructure in a risky zone.
  • Findings reveal discrepancies with current international design codes.
  • Provides data for Afghanistan’s new seismic code development.
  • Hazard model validated by regional historical data.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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History

  • Receive Date: 24 May 2025
  • Revise Date: 02 August 2025
  • Accept Date: 17 August 2025

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