Earthquake Induced Deterministic Damage and Economic Loss Estimation for Kolkata, India

Document Type: Regular Paper

Authors

1 Department of Geology & Geophysics Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur Kharagpur Technology -721302, Midnapore (West) West Bengal, INDIA.

2 Department of Geology & Geophysics Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur Kharagpur Technology -721302, Midnapore (West) West Bengal, INDIA.

Abstract

The city of Kolkata, the State Capital of West Bengal is jolted by earthquakes time and again from the tectonic regimes of the Central Himalaya, highly seismogenic Northeast India and the active tectonics of Bengal Basin which is a pericratonic tertiary basin on which the City is located. Earthquake disaster mitigation and management necessitates seismic hazard assessment for the generation of design response spectra at a site of interest with a zone factor for the computation of seismic coefficient to be adapted in building codes. The surface consistent probabilistic seismic hazard model of Kolkata for 475 years of return period have been used for the modeling of damage potential of buildings, human casualty and economic loss employing the widely used SEismic Loss EstimatioN applying a logic tree Approach (SELENA) in a relational analysis protocol considering eleven model building types. The demand spectrum curve of a spectral acceleration through a judicious interaction with the building capacity curve and fragility curve yields the damage state probability of the same in terms of slight, moderate, extensive and complete. Human casualty levels are also computed applying SELENA for three different times of the day viz. Night, Day and Commuting time. The economic loss to the tune of ~231 billion of Indian Rupees due to building damage only have been estimated within 300 socioeconomic clusters in the City. It is expected that this model will go a long way in safe urbanization process with well-defined disaster mitigation and management guidelines for the city of Kolkata.

Keywords

Main Subjects


[1] Middlemiss, C. S. (1908). Two Calcutta Earthquakes of 1906, Records Geological Survey of India, 36(3):214-232.

[2] Martin, S., Szeliga, W. (2010). A catalog of felt intensity data for 570 earthquakes in India from 1636 to 2009, Bulletin Seismological Society of America, 100:562–569.

[3] Nath, S. K., Thingbaijam, K. K. S., Vyas, J. C., Sengupta, P., Dev, S. M. S. P. (2010). Macroseismic-driven site effects in the southern territory of West Bengal, India, Seismological Research Letter, 81(3):480–487.

[4] Nath, S. K., Adhikari, M. D., Maiti, S. K., Devaraj, N., Srivastava, N., Mohapatra, L. D. (2014). Earthquake scenario in West Bengal with emphasis on seismic hazard microzonation of the city of Kolkata, India, Natural Hazards Earth System Sciences, 14:2549–2575.

[5] Saaty, T. L. (1980), The Analytic Hierarchy Process, McGraw-Hill International, New York, U.S.A

[6] Nath, S.K. (2016), Seismic Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk Microzonation Atlas of Kolkata, © Ministry Of Earth Sciences, Government of India, New Delhi, 530p.

[7] BIS (2002). IS 1893–2002 (Part 1): Indian Standard Criteria for Earthquake Resistant Design of Structures, Part 1 – General Provisions and Buildings, Bureau of Indian Standards, New Delhi.

[8] Dasgupta, S., Pande, P., Ganguly, D., Iqbal, Z. Sanyal, K., Venaktraman, N. V., Dasgupta, S., Sural, B., Harendranath, L., Mazumdar, K. Sanyal, S., Roy, A., Das, L. K., Misra, P. S., Gupta, H. (2000), Seismotectonic Atlas of India and its Environs, Geological Survey of India, Calcutta, India, Spl. Publicaiton, 59: 87.

[9] Nath, S. K., Adhikari, M. D., Devaraj, N., Maiti S. K. (2015).Seismic Vulnerability & Risk Assessment of Kolkata City, India, Natural Hazard and Earth System Science, 2:3015-3063.

[10] Devaraj, N. (2016), Seismic Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk of the city of Kolkata at the backdrop of Regional Earthquake Risk of the Indian Subcontinent, Ph.D. Thesis, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur.

[11] Molina, S., Lindholm, C. (2005). A logic tree extension of the capacity spectrum method developed to estimate seismic risk in Oslo, Norway, Journal of Earthquake Engineering,9(6):877-897.

[12] Molina, S., Lang, D.H., Lindholm, C.D. (2010). SELENA – An open-source tool for seismic risk and loss assessment using a logic tree computation procedure,Computers & Geosciences, 36(3):257-269.

[13] Yang, Y., Zhan, F. B., Li, L. (2011). E stimating seismic losses of schools using SELENA: The case of Wenchuan earthquake. In Geoinformatics, 2011 19th International Conference on IEEE, 1-6.

[14] Lang, D.H., Singh, Y., Prasad, J.S.R. (2012). Comparing empirical and analytical estimates of earthquake loss assessment studies for the city of Dehradun, India, Earthquake Spectra, 28(2):595–619.

[15] HAZUS (1999).National Institute of Building Science-earthquake loss estimation methodology, technical manual, Report prepared for the Federal Emergency Management Authority, Washington, D.C., available at: https://www.fema.gov/hazus

[16] WHE-PAGER (2008). WHE-PAGER Phase 2, Development of Analytical Seismic Vulnerability Functions. EERI-WHE-US Geological Survey, http://pager.world-housing.net/.

[17] Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). 2000. Prestandard and commentary for the Seismic Rehabilitation of Buildings, FEMA 356, Washington, D.C.

[18] NIBS (2002). Earthquake Loss Methodology, HAZUS 99, USA.

[19] Freeman, S. A., Nicoletti, J. P., Tyrell, J. V. (1975), Evaluations of existing buildings for seismic risk—a case study of Puget Sound Naval Shipyard, Bremerton, Washington, In: Proceedings of U.S. National Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Berkeley, 113–122.

[20] Freeman, S. A. (1978), Prediction of response of concrete buildings to severe earthquake motion, publication SP-55, American Concrete Institute, Detroit, 589–605.

[21] ATC (1996). Seismic evaluation and retrofit of concrete buildings, report ATC-40. Applied Technology Council, Redwood City.

[22] Spence, R. (2007). Saving lives in earthquakes: successes and failures in seismic protection since 1960, Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 5(2):139–251.

[23] Coburn, A., Spence R. (2002), Earthquake protection, Second edition, John Wiley & Sons Limited, 420.